Title: Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena

Authors: ZDUNEK, M., KŁECZEK, M.

Keywords: dichotomous forecast, frost, precipitation, verification scores, GEM meteorological model

Abstract: In this study the performance of GEM-LAM numerical weather forecast focused on phenomena relevant to planning on-farm activities (i.e. frost and precipitation), is presented. Values from forecast were compared with observations gathered at 15 meteorological stations from Poland, for 1-year period. Based on data collected in contingency table, six verification scores were calculated. The results show that considerable bias exists – the model forecasts frost occurrence too rarely while precipitation events too frequently. However nearly half of frost cases and 2/3 of precipitation incidents were correctly predicted. As for success ratio SR score the frost forecast was more frequently correct (75% or 64%, depending on frost type) than forecast of precipitation (47%). The skill of negative forecast is high, especially for precipitation, where less than 5% of forecasts were erroneous. Analysis of verification scores calculated separately for each station shows, that regarding the forecast of frost, substantial differences in performance between particular locations exist. The worst results were obtained for stations located near the seaside which indicates that in the analyzed model the impact of water reservoir on frost formation is not correctly taken into account (at horizontal grid resolution of 5 km).

APA style references: Zdunek, M. & Kłeczek, M. (2016). Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 25 (4), 483-496.

APA style citation in text: The first time citation in text: (Zdunek & Kłeczek, 2016), next citation: (Zdunek & Kłeczek, 2016)

Chicago style references: Zdunek, Małgorzata, Maria Kłeczek. "Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena." Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 74 ser., vol. 25, no 4, (2016): 483-496.

Chicago style citation in text: (Zdunek, and Kłeczek 2016)

Bibtxt style references: @article{Zdunek_Kłeczek_2016_PNIKS, author={Zdunek, Małgorzata and Kłeczek, Maria}, language={english}, title={Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena}, journal={Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences}, URL={http://iks.pn.sggw.pl/PN74/A10/art10.pdf}, year={2016}, volume={25 (4)}, number={74}, pages={483-496}}

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