Title: The relationship between atmospheric circulation by Lityński and seasonal rainfall in Poland

Authors: PIANKO-KLUCZYŃSKA, K.

Keywords: SPI, RPI, atmospheric circulation, circulation classification of Lityński, probabilistic weather forecast, Bayesian classifier, Jaccard’s index

Abstract: Precipitation conditions (i.e. the sum of precipitation and number of days with precipitation), which exist in a given season and area, are very important for agriculture. The aim of the study was to verify the thesis that the atmospheric circulation based on Lityński’s indices and types of circulation, can determine the most likely precipitation conditions, in future seasons, in selected synoptic stations in Poland. Precipitation conditions were specified using several classifications: of five classes based on the ratio of total precipitation (number of days with precipitation to their seasonal many-years averages (Meteorological and Hydrological Bulletin, IMWM), of seven classes for total precipitation, based on Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI (often used in studies of agrometeorological), and of three classes system, which is used in long-term forecasts (this classification, denoted KLIM, describes either total precipitation and the number of days with precipitation). Seasonal circulation was described by reference of percentiles for the season of the year to the percentiles of the reference period 1981–2010. Percentiles were determined for the values of the indices and the number of days with selected type or its component. The author conducted two reconstructions of precipitation characteristics using a simple probabilistic Bayesian classifier (for types and circulation indices as explanatory variables). The aim of this work was to verify whether the classification according to Lityński is useful in forecasting of seasonal drought and flooding. The hypothesis has been confirmed that the atmospheric circulation delivers the information about current and future precipitation conditions but the knowledge of other atmospheric processes should be taken into account in forecasting models.

APA style references: Pianko-Kluczyńska, K. (2015). The relationship between atmospheric circulation by Lityński and seasonal rainfall in Poland. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 24 (2), 167-177.

APA style citation in text: The first time citation in text: (Pianko-Kluczyńska, 2015), next citation: (Pianko-Kluczyńska, 2015)

Chicago style references: Pianko-Kluczyńska, Krystyna. "The relationship between atmospheric circulation by Lityński and seasonal rainfall in Poland." Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 68 ser., vol. 24, no 2, (2015): 167-177.

Chicago style citation in text: (Pianko-Kluczyńska 2015)

Bibtxt style references: @article{Pianko-Kluczyńska_2015_PNIKS, author={Pianko-Kluczyńska, Krystyna}, title={The relationship between atmospheric circulation by Lityński and seasonal rainfall in Poland.}, journal={Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences}, URL={http://iks_pn.sggw.pl/PN68/A6/art6.pdf}, year={2015}, volume={24 (2)}, number={68}, pages={167-177}}

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